The Greater Victoria market concluded November with conditions that reflect both seasonal factors and the continued influence of central bank policy. Following the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the key interest rate at 2.25%, purchasing power saw modest dampening. This environment, combined with the typical slowing pace as the holiday season approaches, led to a discernible market contraction. Success in this winter market hinges on informed decision-making and property-specific strategy.
Detailed Market Performance: November 2025 Year-over-Year
The following table summarizes the year-over-year performance for key residential property types in November 2025.
| Property Type | Sales Change (Nov 2024 vs Nov 2025) | Price Change (YoY) | Dollar Price Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family Home | -8.4% | -2.8% (HPI Core) | -$37,200 |
| Condominium | -36.0% | +2.0% (HPI Core) | +$11,000 |
| Townhome | -26.7% | -2.1% (Median Price) | $approx -$16,000 |
Note: Price changes for Single Family Homes and Condominiums reflect the MLS® HPI Benchmark Price for the Victoria Core. The Townhome figure reflects the change in the VREB median sold price.
Sales Activity and Inventory Balance
Overall sales activity in Greater Victoria saw a contraction of $18.1\%$ compared to November of the previous year. This noticeable change is partly attributed to a difference in the distribution of sales activity throughout 2025 versus 2024, as Chair Dirk VanderWal noted: “We observed a slowing of the pace of sales this month that we didn’t experience last year at this time.”
Conversely, the supply side of the market continues to expand, with active listings increasing by 11.1% year-over-year. This growth in inventory provides buyers with increased selection and contributes to a market where the sales-to-active-listings ratio suggests balanced conditions with a slight buyer advantage in certain segments.
Pricing Trends Reflect Economic Reality
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) for a benchmark single-family home registered a moderate decrease of 2.8% in November. This adjustment suggests the market is responding to prevailing economic conditions, particularly higher carrying costs associated with current interest rates. It represents a price correction that brings values more closely in line with current affordability parameters.
It is important to recognize that property quality and pricing strategy remain key differentiators. Homes that are meticulously prepared, professionally staged, and priced appropriately relative to current benchmarks are still securing transactions efficiently. The market is increasingly demanding accurate valuation rather than relying on previous market highs.
Guidance for December
For Buyers: The increase in inventory offers a valuable opportunity for careful selection and negotiation. With less urgency across the market, buyers are well-positioned to complete due diligence and structure offers thoughtfully, particularly on properties that have been on the market for an extended period.
For Sellers: Success requires a strategic approach. Accurate pricing remains the most critical factor, often outweighing preparation and marketing efforts. Consulting with a well-informed agent to analyze the most recent comparable sales—rather than relying on older market euphoria—is essential to position a listing effectively in a more competitive environment.
This winter market demands patience and clear perspective. For a personalized analysis of how these trends impact your specific property goals, please reach out.
(VREB stats package link here: https://www.vreb.org/current-statistics#gsc.tab=0)