The transition from January into February has brought a definitive shift to the Greater Victoria housing landscape. Before unpacking the latest data, I must extend a sincere thank you to my clients, colleagues, and friends. I was recently honored with the MLS® Silver Award from the Victoria Real Estate Board, marking another year of ranking within the top 20% of local REALTORS®. Serving this community for 14 years—consistently staying within that top tier of performance—is a privilege I don’t take lightly. This achievement belongs to the clients who trust me with their most significant transitions.
This Victoria Real Estate Market Update February 2026 arrives as the local market crosses a major threshold. We are seeing a significant divergence between property types and a move toward conditions that favor the patient buyer. While the spring peak is visible on the horizon, the January data suggests a market currently defined by high inventory and a cooling of sales velocity.
Watch the February 2026 market overview
In this month’s video, I break down the specific sales-to-active listing ratios and explain why the 17% threshold matters for your upcoming real estate strategy.
The numbers: inventory climbs as sales contract
January’s results indicate a market in transition. Total sales volume across the Greater Victoria region dropped by 19.7% compared to the same period last year. This contraction was led by the single-family home sector, where sales fell 21%, and the condominium sector, which saw a 25% decline. In contrast, townhomes remain a pocket of resilience, with sales volume actually increasing by 2% year-over-year.
While buyers were more selective, sellers were active. New listings rose by 9.6%, continuing a trend of inventory growth that has been building since late 2025. This combination has pushed the sales-to-active listing ratio down to exactly 17%.
| Property Type | Sales Change (YoY) | HPI Benchmark Price | HPI Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family Home | ▼ 21% | $1,255,000 | ▼ 2.5% |
| Condominium | ▼ 25% | $537,800 | ▼ 1.5% |
| Townhome | ▲ 2% | $833,100 | ▼ 2.4% |
REALTOR® insights: entering the buyer’s threshold
The 17% sales-to-active listing ratio is a critical psychological and statistical marker. Historically, a ratio above 28% signals a seller’s market, while dipping below 17% initiates a buyer’s market. We have now hit that lower threshold. For the first time in several cycles, the pressure has shifted away from the buyer.
My analysis of the historical “listing bar graph” shows that we are currently on the upward slope toward the March, April, and May peak. This seasonal pattern is remarkably consistent year after year. However, the current “buy-side” conditions mean that even as we approach the spring rush, buyers have more leverage than they have experienced in recent memory.
Perspective from the Victoria Real Estate Board
The board’s latest reporting confirms that while activity levels are lower than the historical average for January, the stability of the price index remains a positive sign for the region’s long-term health. 2026 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Fergus Kyne noted in the latest summary: “The current increase in inventory is providing much-needed relief for buyers who have felt sidelined in previous years. We are seeing a more balanced environment where transactions can proceed with a level of due diligence that benefits everyone involved.”
This balance is reflected in the Home Price Index (HPI). While sales volume has slowed, prices haven’t plummeted; they have softened. The benchmark for a single-family home now sits at $1,255,000, representing a manageable 2.5% decrease.
Strategic takeaways for buyers and sellers
For Buyers: You are in the driver’s seat. With a 17% ratio and rising inventory, you have the opportunity to be thorough. You can negotiate on price, include protective subjects, and take the time to find a home that truly fits your lifestyle. The townhome sector is the most competitive, so if that is your target, remain diligent but expect more company during showings.
For Sellers: The spring market is coming, but you cannot rely on market momentum alone. With listings up nearly 10%, your property must be the best-valued option in its price bracket. “Pricing it right” isn’t a suggestion; it’s the requirement for a successful sale. I am currently working with clients to develop aggressive 2026 strategies that prioritize professional staging and precise market positioning to cut through the increased competition.
Building your 2026 strategy
The February market data tells us that the landscape is favorable for those with a plan. Whether you are looking to capitalize on buyer’s market conditions or you need to navigate a sale in an inventory-rich environment, expert guidance is more valuable now than it was during the “easy” markets of the past.
If you have questions about how these shifts affect your specific neighborhood or property type, I am here to help. Please visit my contact page to get in touch, and let’s discuss how to make your 2026 real estate goals a reality.