Balanced Momentum Meets Localized Shifts
The headline from the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) declared October a month where a balanced Victoria real estate market continues to provide consumers with options. That is the official, high-level summary. The reality, however, buried in the data, is far more complex than a single word like ‘balanced’ can convey. This is the essential truth of the Victoria Real Estate Market Update for October 2025: a surface-level plateau masks significant, property-specific movement. Overall, 617 properties sold across the region. That’s an 11.4 per cent jump from September 2025, confirming a late-season pulse in activity, but it was still 5.7 per cent lower than the 654 properties sold in October of 2024. Forget sweeping generalizations. The market is fracturing along asset class and geographical lines. Understanding where your property—or the property you want to buy—falls on that spectrum is the difference between success and stagnation.
Your November 2025 Victoria Real Estate Overview
Before diving into the hard numbers, take a moment to check out my latest short analysis in this video. My team and I produce this video and blog every month in an effort to help help my clients make the best decisions and provide you useful local and timely perspective.
We monitor the graphs constantly. For years, my charts showing whether the market is truly balanced have been essential. Lately, the sales to active listings ratio has been notably flat. That stability, however, is an aggregate illusion. The core message remains unshakeable: what is true for a single-family home is fundamentally untrue for a condo, and what applies to the Victoria Core is irrelevant to the Westshore, the Peninsula, or the Malahat area. This level of market segmentation demands granular data analysis, not broad assumptions. We are approaching the end of the year, which always brings differences, but the current climate makes local expertise non-negotiable.
Key Stats: A Tale of Two Markets
The official statistics from VREB for October 2025 lay out a stark picture. Total active listings climbed to 3,423 by month-end. This 8.3 per cent year-over-year increase in inventory gives buyers substantially more choice, fundamentally altering the negotiation landscape. But look at the unit sales breakdown, and the regional story becomes clear:
| Property Type | October 2025 Sales (Units) | Change from October 2024 | MLS® HPI Core Benchmark Price | Y/Y Price Change (Core) |
| Single-Family Homes | 350 | Up 2.9% | $1,276,500 | Down 1.8% |
| Condominiums | 159 | Down 15% | $551,000 | Up 0.6% |
| Townhomes | 75 | Up 2.7% | $845,800 | Down 1.0% (Core) |
Sales Divergence: October 2024 to October 2025
- Single-Family Homes: +2.9% (Significant momentum)
- Townhomes: +2.7% (Steady demand)
- Condominiums: -15.0% (Clear deceleration)
The single-family market showed remarkable resilience and strength, posting the highest number of October sales since 2020. Meanwhile, condo sales dropped off dramatically, a 15 per cent slide year-over-year. The single-family benchmark price in the Core slipped 1.8 per cent year-over-year to $1,276,500, yet the Core condominium benchmark actually saw a modest gain, rising 0.6 per cent to $551,000. Price stability remains, but buyer activity is clearly polarized.
Realtor Insights: The Demand Divergence
The market narrative right now is defined by this divergence. Single-family homes, despite facing the highest benchmark prices, are absorbing inventory and driving sales volume, indicating robust underlying demand and a continued belief in the long-term value of detached housing in Greater Victoria. The condo segment, conversely, is experiencing restraint. A 15 per cent drop in sales is not a trend to ignore; it points to a slowdown in decision-making and a higher barrier to entry for first-time buyers or investors, likely amplified by continued, though recently cut, high-interest rates.
Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Dirk VanderWal nailed the interpretation of this dynamic. He stated, “The local real estate market remains reasonably balanced… Single family homes are currently seeing the strongest demand, and this month we saw the highest number of October sales since 2020. However, condo sales were slightly more restrained than single family and townhome sales over the past month. We have not seen a significant decrease in prices as a result, but those shopping for condos will find a good variety to choose from with time to make decisions”.
The full VREB news release is available here
This is a market where the overall price index obscures the tactical reality. The Bank of Canada delivered an interest rate cut late in October. It’s a development that every consumer and investor is watching with anticipation, waiting to see the ripple effect on both fixed and variable mortgage rates. This wait-and-see approach contributes directly to the current ‘balanced’ status—it is a balance maintained by consumer hesitation, not pure market equilibrium. The approaching winter also suggests a seasonal cooling, but that does not mean a quiet market; it means an educated buyer or seller can leverage localized conditions to their advantage. My experience confirms this: the difference in market velocity between an Oak Bay single-family home and a Westshore condo is night and day.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
You cannot afford to treat the Victoria market as a monolithic entity. Your strategy must be micro-focused, leveraging the specific data points that affect your property type and neighbourhood.
Advice for Sellers
If you own a single-family home, your market remains strong, particularly in the Core where demand is concentrated. However, the rise in active listings means buyers have alternatives. Aggressive pricing is dead. Your focus must be on precision pricing, presentation, and marketing that emphasizes your property’s unique regional appeal. If you’re selling a condominium, acknowledge the current buyer-friendly climate. The market has shifted to favour the purchaser looking for good variety and time to negotiate. This means you must be proactive. Do not wait for a price decrease to be forced upon you; list strategically based on a real-time mini comparative market analysis (CMA).
Advice for Buyers
This is where opportunity knocks. If a single-family home is your target, the 1.8 per cent price dip in the Core is marginal, but the overall increase in active listings provides leverage that hasn’t been available in years. Buyers must use the increased time on the market to perform due diligence and structure precise offers. For condominium buyers, this is your moment. You have options. The pressure to bid recklessly is off. Take the time to evaluate inventory in the Core, Westshore, and Peninsula to find the best value, particularly since the VREB noted that those shopping for condos “will find a good variety to choose from with time to make decisions”. The small interest rate cut is something to watch, as even minor shifts can unlock new buying power. Be prepared to move decisively, but not rashly.
Move Past the Overview, Get The Details
The VREB provides the big picture, but the real money is made in the details. The statistics package is thirty pages deep for a reason. You need to see exactly what your house is worth, or what the market is doing in your neighbourhood—not just in the Core, but specifically in the Westshore, the Peninsula, or the Malahat area. A generalized statistic is a dangerous thing.
Stop wondering. Start executing. I am putting a shout-out to everyone interested in seeing the specific data. I can easily perform a mini comparative market analysis (CMA) for you. This analysis is personalized, cutting through the aggregate data to reveal the true market value of your home or the actual activity around your street. This is the intelligence you need to make a confident move.
Do not allow the end-of-year seasonal slowdown to lull you into inaction. The Victoria real estate market is dynamic and will continue to change course based on consumer activity and shifting economic signals. The only way to win is to possess superior, localized information.
Click below to secure your personalized mini comparative market analysis (CMA) and discuss your strategy for the remainder of November and the lead-up to the New Year.
Contact Jeff Bishop