The holiday season typically signals a quiet retreat for the housing market, but the numbers for December 2025 and the full year in review tell a more nuanced story. We are entering 2026 in a state of deliberate balance. The erratic swings of previous years have matured into a marketplace defined by selection and measured decision-making. This Victoria Real Estate Market Update January 2026 examines how a slight increase in annual sales volume has converged with a notable softening in benchmark prices, creating a unique window of opportunity for the year ahead.
Start your 2026 strategy here
In my latest video update, I break down the 2025 year-end totals and look at our current inventory levels. Understanding the “months of inventory” chart is essential for anyone planning a move this year.
The year in review: stability by the numbers
Looking at the full trajectory of 2025, the market demonstrated remarkable resilience. We saw a total of 6,918 sales across Greater Victoria over the past year. This represents a modest increase of 25 sales compared to the 6,893 transactions recorded in 2024. While the growth is incremental, it signals a market that has found its floor.
However, the “softening” I’ve mentioned in recent updates is now clearly visible in the price index. The benchmark value for a single-family home started last year at $1,316,000. It has since retracted by 4.7%, landing at $1,255,000 as we begin 2026. This correction reflects the reality of sustained interest rates and a shift in buyer purchasing power.
| Market Metric | Dec 2024 / Year-End | Dec 2025 / Year-End | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Sales Volume | 6,893 | 6,918 | ▲ 0.4% |
| Monthly Sales (Dec) | – | 12% Fewer YoY | ▼ 12% |
| Monthly Active Listings | – | 11% More YoY | ▲ 11% |
| Benchmark HPI (SFH) | $1,316,000 | $1,255,000 | ▼ 4.7% |
| Inventory Levels | ~3 Months | ~6 Months | ▲ 100% |
REALTOR® insights: the six-month inventory mark
One of the most telling indicators for 2026 is our current inventory level. We are sitting at approximately six months of inventory. To put that in perspective, in 2022, we were scraping the bottom with only one month of supply. A six-month supply represents a textbook “balanced market.”
Selection for buyers is at a level we haven’t seen in years. This isn’t a bad thing. It means the “frenzy” is replaced by “choice.” Properties are no longer selling simply because they exist; they are selling because they are priced correctly and presented with care. Strategy has officially overtaken luck as the primary driver of a successful sale.
Perspective from the victoria real estate board
The broader data suggests that the seasonal slowdown was slightly more pronounced this year, yet it aligns with a healthier long-term trend. 2026 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Dirk VanderWal noted in the recent summary: “The December market followed a typical seasonal pattern, but with a welcome increase in inventory that has helped to keep price growth in check. This balance is exactly what our market needs to remain sustainable for both local families and those looking to enter the market for the first time.”
This sentiment captures the current mood: a market that is “boring” in its stability is actually a market that is functioning properly. We are seeing typical seasonality return to Victoria, which allows for due diligence and thoughtful negotiations.
What this means for you in 2026
For Buyers: The era of the “no-condition offer” is largely in the rearview mirror. With six months of inventory, you have the luxury of time. You can view multiple properties, compare values, and ensure your financing and inspections are fully vetted. The 4.7% dip in benchmark prices means your dollar goes further today than it did twelve months ago.
For Sellers: Inventory is up 11% compared to last December. Your competition is no longer just the house down the street; it is the sheer volume of choice available to buyers. Pricing your property right from day one is non-negotiable. If you overprice in a six-month inventory environment, your listing will likely contribute to the “months of inventory” stat rather than the “sold” column. Staging, professional photography, and a realistic valuation are your best tools for success.
Start your year with a plan
2026 is shaping up to be a year of strategic opportunity. Whether you are looking to downsize while the detached market holds its value or enter the market while prices have softened, having a clear roadmap is essential. Let’s talk about your goals and how we can navigate this balanced market together.
Ready to discuss your 2026 real estate goals? Reach out to me here on my contact page and let’s get to work.
Take care, and Happy New Year.