Global economic shifts and localized inventory growth have defined the opening of the spring season in Greater Victoria. I am currently in my 20th year in real estate—two decades of navigating cycles that include the rapid climb of 2016 and the unprecedented volatility of the early 2020s. Experience matters when the “hockey stick” graphs of the past transition into the nuanced, price-sensitive environment we are seeing today. This Victoria Real Estate Market Update March 2026 provides a clear-eyed look at how high listing volumes and shifting buyer preferences are reshaping our local landscape.
Watch the March 2026 Market Update
In this month’s overview, I discuss the importance of strong mortgage backing in “interesting times” and break down why townhomes are currently the only sector seeing a sales volume increase.
The data: a divergence in demand
The February data reveals a marketplace that is cooling in aggregate but intensifying in specific pockets. Total sales across the Victoria Real Estate Board region have retracted by 12% compared to the same period last year. Simultaneously, new listings have surged by 10%. We are currently seeing listing levels that mirror the start of 2016, but without the immediate price acceleration that defined that era.
The most striking divergence is found in property types. Single-family home sales volumes dropped 12% year-over-year, and condominium sales saw a steeper 20% reduction. Conversely, townhomes experienced a 12% increase in sales volume compared to last year. This suggests that buyers are increasingly price-sensitive, gravitating toward the “middle ground” of the market where value and space intersect.
| Property Sector | Sales Volume (YoY) | Benchmark Price (HPI) |
|---|---|---|
| Single Family Home | ▼ 12% | $1,134,000 |
| Condominium | ▼ 20% | $537,000 |
| Townhome | ▲ 12% | $772,000 |
REALTOR® insights: the 20-year perspective
History rarely repeats exactly, but it often rhymes. When we look at current listing levels being comparable to early 2016, we have to account for the “brakes” applied by government policy and the lingering effects of high borrowing costs. In my 20 years of advising clients, I have seen that “price sensitivity” is the dominant force in a balanced market.
We are currently seeing a softening of approximately 1% across benchmark prices for all sectors. This isn’t a retreat; it’s a recalibration. Buyers are no longer rushing into every listing; they are waiting for properties that meet a very specific criteria of value and condition. This is why having a top-tier mortgage broker is more vital now than ever. Whether you are with a major bank or an independent lender, your financing strategy must be as robust as your search criteria.
Perspective from the Victoria Real Estate Board
The board’s analysis suggests that the market is finding a sustainable rhythm, even if it feels slower than the frantic pace of previous years. VREB Chair Fergus Kyne noted in the latest market report: “While we see more inventory on the market than in recent years, the stability of our benchmark prices suggests a healthy underlying demand. Buyers are taking more time to evaluate their options, which is a hallmark of a balanced and functional real estate environment.”
This stability is reflected in the Home Price Index. The single-family benchmark of $1,134,000 and the condo benchmark of $537,000 represent a market that has found a steady plateau, providing a predictable environment for both buyers and sellers to make long-term moves.
Positioning for the Spring Market
For Buyers: The 10% increase in listings means you are not competing in a vacuum. You have selection. However, the 12% jump in townhome sales shows that the most desirable segments move quickly. My advice is to secure your “independent advice” regarding financing immediately. Knowing your exact bandwidth allows you to act with confidence when a well-priced townhome or entry-level house appears.
For Sellers: We are in an “interesting” time where townhomes are up and detached homes are down in volume. If you are selling a single-family home, your competition is the highest it has been in several cycles. You cannot rely on historical appreciation to sell your home today. Success in this market requires a strategy that acknowledges the 1% softening and positions your home as the best “buy” in its specific neighborhood.
Navigativing the next cycle
Entering my second decade in this industry, I’ve learned that the most successful moves are made with a combination of data and timing. The current market isn’t a “hockey stick” up or a plummet down; it is a complex, balanced system that requires expert navigation.
If you are curious about how the softening benchmarks or the increase in townhome demand affects your specific property value, I am here to provide that 20-year perspective. Reach out to me through my contact page to discuss a customized strategy for your 2026 real estate goals.